Boris Johnson is facing a dramatic vote of no confidence today as rebel Tory lawmakers seek to assassinate his leadership.
Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the Backbench 1922 committee, confirmed this morning that he had now received 54 letters from party colleagues requiring him to trigger a vote.
The secret ballot, which will take place in Westminster between 6pm and 8pm, rises Mr Johnson’s term is likely to end in less than three years, with an 80-strong Commons majority.
This came after a steady stream of Tory lawmakers publicly called on the prime minister to stand up to No. 10 and White House based on Suu Kyi’s report on illegal cowardly parties.
However, the rebels need 180 lawmakers to oust the prime minister, and Mr Johnson’s allies – including members of the cabinet – have made it clear they are determined to continue fighting.
Here are the main questions about the upcoming polls.
What is the mechanism to remove the Tory leader?
Conservative Party rules allow lawmakers to vote no-confidence in their leader, with much of the responsibility resting with Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the Backbench 1922 Committee.
A total of 54 no-confidence letters from Tory lawmakers representing 15 percent of the 360-strong parliamentary party are required to vote.
Sir Graham has received a steady stream of letters in recent days as the Tories have spent time in his constituency consulting with local parties about his whereabouts.
He announced this morning that the threshold had been reached – awaiting the conclusion of the Platinum Jubilee celebrations.
At least 50 percent of Tory lawmakers must cast a “no-confidence” vote to defeat the prime minister.
Most predictors say Boris Johnson is likely to win today’s no-confidence vote, but he could still be injured.
How many Tory MPs have sent letters so far?
We know that more than 54 letters may have been sent to trigger a vote of no confidence, but the exact number is a secret until the MP who sent it makes it public.
That means Sir Graham only knows how many letters there are at any one time – and he’s famously secret about numbers.
Almost every day last week, Tory lawmakers announced that they had submitted a no-confidence motion to their leader.
Amid the party’s results, more than 300 Tory lawmakers have publicly called for the beleagured PM to resign, but not all have confirmed the letter.
Jesse Norman – a longtime supporter of Mr Johnson – became the latest Tory MP to announce today that he had delivered a letter to Sir Graham.
In a letter to the prime minister posted on social media, Mr Norman, an MP from Herford and South Harfordshire, said Mr Johnson had presided over a “culture of emergency law breaking” number 10 and that his claim had been substantiated by the lawsuit. The gray report was ‘bizarre’.
Why now
Earlier this year, Mr Johnson became the first British prime minister to be found guilty of violating the law.
He refused to stand after receiving a single fine for participating in a 2020 lockdown violation program on Downing Street during the coronavirus epidemic.
But his support among Conservatives has waned in recent weeks following the publication of an internal investigation that found he presided over a culture of parties that lasted late into the night and also showed drunken fights among workers.
Many Tory lawmakers have said they do not believe the party can win another general election under Mr Johnson.
Opinion polls have shown deep public dissatisfaction with the scandal, with a large majority saying he deliberately lied about ‘Partygate’ and saying he should resign.
The Tories have suffered several electoral defeats during their tenure, with Liberal Democrats and hundreds of councilors losing traditionally reserved seats in the by-elections in early May.
The party is also expected to lose two more by-elections in the south-west and north of England later this month.
What happens between voting now and tonight?
Between now and this evening between 6pm and 8pm, Tory lawmakers will be the victims of a frantic wave of lobbying by the prime minister and his allies.
MPs will also be called for their voting intentions to target lobbying efforts on potential insurgents.
Cabinet ministers have rallied around Mr Johnson immediately, so – at least outwardly – they will join in the effort to push the vote in his favor.
Opposition to the PM is likely to be equally active.
How does the physical voting process work?
1922 Ballot boxes placed in the offices of the executive members of the committee will be used for voting.
The box will probably be placed in the same room where MPs meet each week for a committee meeting, in the center of a long corridor on the first floor of Westminster Palace, without seeing the Thames.
Tory lawmakers will vote by secret ballot from 6pm to 8pm and photography will be banned, as in the general election.
This is to prevent the PM’s aides from demanding photographic evidence that the MP voted in his favor.
The idea is to allow MPs to vote according to their discretion. Any lawmaker away from Westminster can nominate a proxy to vote on their behalf.
Sir Graham Brady oversees the process as chairman of the Backbench 1922 Committee
When is the result announced?
Whether the process is simple or not, the leader is technically required to win the support of only a simple majority of MPs.
Sir Graham said arrangements for the announcement would be made “later today”.
Given the results will be counted immediately and there are not particularly large number of ballots to go, it is likely to be very fast.
It is possible that Sir Graham will do as he did in 2018, and will bring MPs and journalists together in the same committee room where the day before the vote took place.
He will then announce to the parliamentary party whether he believes in Mr. Johnson, before revealing the number of votes cast in each party.
Sir Graham hoped there would be “clear results”.
What happens if he loses?
If they do not get a majority from the parliamentarians then the leader is fired, and the leadership competition starts in which they cannot stand.
However, he will remain in office until a replacement is elected.
In the leadership contest, the lawmakers whitewash the two candidates before the party members make their final statement.
How does the Tory leadership contest work?
If Mr Johnson is removed from the vote or forced to resign, there will be a leadership race to replace him as head of the Tory party – although he is likely to remain prime minister until he succeeds.
The competition takes place in two stages.
In the first round, Conservative lawmakers put forward their candidacies.
All Tory MPs then vote in a series of rounds to reduce the number of candidates until only two remain.
In the second round of the contest, the two remaining candidates have been put to the vote by members of the Conservative Party.
Following Theresa May’s resignation, Mr Johnson won the leadership contest in 2019 against Jeremy Hunt.
What if he survived?
If Mr. Johnson survives, the Conservative Party’s 1922 Committee cannot take a vote of confidence for another year.
In any case, Sir Graham acknowledged today that Mr Johnson would not be safe if he survived tonight’s vote.
Although the Conservative Committee’s rules state that there can be no vote of confidence for another 12 months, Sir Graham said the process could be changed.
Theresa May, pictured with her husband Philip at St. Paul’s Platinum Jubilee Thanksgiving service, also faced a vote of no confidence.
“It is technically possible to change the rules, but the current rules will be a period of grace,” he told reporters.
But even if Mr Johnson survives this evening’s vote, his leadership could be severely weakened if lawmakers vote against him.
Can he resign anyway if he wins by narrow margin?
Technically yes, but the signs coming out of number 10 suggest that he is determined to fight.
“Tonight is the chance to end months of speculation and allow the government to draw the line and move forward, delivering on the people’s priorities,” a Downing Street spokesman said.
“The prime minister welcomes the opportunity to present his case to the parliamentarians and reminds them that there is no powerful political force when they are united and focused on important issues for the voters.”
His reputation as a political survivor who has resisted the raft of other calls to resign in the past also suggests that he should be forcibly removed.
What if he decides to leave immediately?
In case of leadership competition, the Council of Ministers will agree on a temporary successor.
This could be Mr. Johnson’s deputy, Dominic Raab.
Who can replace Mr. Johnson?
A major problem for the rebels is the lack of a clear replacement for Mr Johnson.
Earlier, his favorite sage Sunak was also fined at the party gate and no one is in front.
Former cabinet minister Jeremy Hunt has been named as the contender, while defense secretary Ben Wallace has been riding high with the party’s grass roots. Tom Tugendhat is the only lawmaker to have announced his intention to become prime minister.
When was the last time a leader change mechanism was used?
The last vote of confidence was held in December 2018 when, after months of speculation, enough lawmakers decided they did not trust Theresa May’s leadership.
She won 200 votes out of 117 in the contest – making her immune to another challenge for a year.
But in the midst of another revolt against Brexit, he was forced to announce his resignation the following spring, paving the way for Mr Johnson to take the lead.